Melbourne Cup "Guide" 2014
Nov 03, 2014
Tips: 11 - 1 - 22 - 3 - 4 - 24 - 21
ADMIRE RAKTI – Is carrying more weight than the jolly, bearded friend in a blokey comedy movie (ala Seth Rogen, Zack Galligfhwblurg, old Chris Pratt), but won the Caulfield Cup super-impressively. Japan horses have been killing across the globe and you have to include him. My 2nd pick.
CAVALRYMAN – Is a 9 year old, so according to some TV networks is a target for a reality singing show or something. Great jockey, great barrier, and in great form. Will run a decent 8th
FAWKNER – Sounds like a Scottish person saying ‘No’ aggressively. Is probably Australia’s greatest chance and has been uber consistent all preparation. My 4th pick.
RED CADEAUX – Has run 2nd in this race in 2011 and 2013. Loves coming second. Ladies love him. He might not be going as well this year, but always seems to lift on Cup day. My 5th pick.
PROTECTIONIST – International who has never finished worse than 4th in its life. I once finished 3rd in an arm wrestle. Hard to line up the form, but his only Australian run was top notch and you have to include him. Will run a decent 8th.
SEA MOON – You won’t sea moon tomorrow. SCRATCHED.
SEISMOS – He hasn’t really performed over the distance before, unlike RED CADEAUX. With 23 runners you have to leave some out, and this guy isn’t on my roster.
JUNOOB – Not much form at this track or distance. Name means ‘South of’ which is where my bank balance has gone every time I’ve backed him. Happy to leave The Noob out.
ROYAL DIAMOND - Another 9 year old who looks to be making up the numbers, just like I do on my tax return. Can’t have him.
GATEWOOD – Moved out here 2 years ago, then got sent back to England. We should’ve done that to Dicko. Has an impressive passport, but I don’t think he’ll get this trip.
MUTUAL REGARD – A real dark horse who has won over the distance and in big fields. D Oliver to pilot and that’s a massive plus for an overseas horse who doesn’t have Flemington set in their GPS. My 1st pick.
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN – It was probably Steve, you don’t mess with Steve… A good Kiwi chance who has won over the distance before. Might find a few of these too slick however.
WILLING FOE –8 year old international, who is yet to have a start over here. WILLING NO.
MY AMBIVALENT – Don’t really know what to think about this horse. I could go either way really. Nah, his first time over 3200m against 22 other decent animals. Do not want.
PRECEDENCE – Another 9 year old, who has had plenty of chances in this race before. Bart Cummings trains him and that’s probably the only positive. A crowd fave who will run a decent 8th.
BRAMBLES – Honest horse who has come back from a serious injury. Is drawn the car park and probably doesn’t run 3200m.
MR O’CEIRIN – Is 200-1. That means for every ten dollars you put on him… you lose ten dollars.
AU REVOIR – Insert ‘saying goodbye to your money’ joke here.
LIDARI – He and BRAMBLES have been BFF’s this campaign, finishing alongside each other in a lot of races. You can’t back one without the other. Or just don’t back both. Or do whatever you want, I’m not a cop.
OPINION – Good weight, pretty good barrier, and has run 2nd over this distance prior. Probably just lacks the class required, but can run a decent 8th IMHO.
ARALDO – Has been set for this race, and is a really good lightweight chance. Will start from the outside gate, so will need luck to get across. He’ll be playing Frogger down the first straight, but cannot be left out of your multiples. My 7th pick.
LUCIA VALENTINA – The first of the ladies… Only started racing a year ago, and her effort in the Caulfield Cup was eye-catching. She might just be one year away, but cannot be ignored. My 3rd pick.
UNCHAIN MY HEART – Another mare who does run out the 3200m, albeit slowly. Another 200-1 shot who you probably have to leave out.
SIGNOFF – Only got into this race on Saturday but has the magic man Joao Moreira on board. Joao could ride a pool pony to victory at the moment, and this horse looks set to the minute. My 6th pick.